China's macroeconomic and financial outlook report for the second half of the year was released by the Bank of Communications Finance Research Center today. According to the current economic fundamentals, the policy effect of comprehensive adjustment of benchmark interest rates may not be good, and the monetary multiplier has gone through history after many times of reduction. High, stable leverage is still an important policy objective. Real estate prices in some areas still have upward pressure. The RMB exchange rate has undergone a gradual depreciation process. It is no longer appropriate for monetary policy to be further relaxed. (Sina 7x24)
Brent crude oil has little short-term fluctuation, now reported at $67.04 per barrel, up 0.10% in the day. A spokesman for the British government confirmed that three Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz tried to block the passage of British tankers yesterday, but failed with the intervention of the British Navy.
According to Bitstamp, the price of Bitstamp has fallen short-term, reporting a 6.5% drop in the day at $11216.84 a piece.
【ICBC Chairman Chen Siqing met with Tencent Ma Huateng on deepening bank-enterprise cooperation and other in-depth exchanges】 【Hong Kong Telecom News 11, ICBC News 11, July 9, ICBC (01398.HK) Chairman Chen Siqing led a team to visit Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) company, and Tencent Board Chairman and CEO Ma Huateng on. Further deepening the cooperation between banks and enterprises, jointly exploring the application and development of financial science and technology, and so on, carried out in-depth exchanges. Chen Siqing expressed the hope that the two sides would further deepen the connotation of cooperation and promote all-round cooperation, including corporate finance, Internet finance, virtual banking, financial science and technology. (Securities Times)
【Data hints】 The euro zone's post-season trade account in May, the euro zone and Germany's ZEW economic prosperity index in July will be released in 10 minutes.
The Australian ASX200 Index closed up 26.30 points, or 0.39%, at 6716.10 on Thursday, July 11.
The onshore and offshore renminbi rose by about 0.1% against the dollar.
On the morning of November 11, the central bank did not carry out reverse repurchase operations, and it has been suspended for 14 consecutive working days. However, the wording of the central bank's open market business transaction announcement continues to be fine-tuned, acknowledging that the total liquidity is declining, which lays the groundwork for the subsequent timely restart of operations. Industry insiders pointed out that the money market interest rate basically returned to normal level, the total liquidity has declined; and with the impact of the central bank reverse repurchase and MLF maturity and tax period, it may further decline; therefore, it is expected that the central bank's open market operation will not be suspended for long. (China Syndrome Network)
Bank of Australia and New Zealand: Crude oil supply is facing the risk of interruption. In the second half of this year, oil prices will rise to $70 per barrel above OPEC+insist on the implementation of production reduction agreements. In addition, oil production in Iran and Venezuela is declining. The risk of interruption of supply in the Middle East is rising. Oil market balance should be tightened in the second half of 2019. American shale gas companies have been reducing drilling activity, which may limit shale oil production growth in the short term. The demand for crude oil is still above 1 million barrels per day in the context of the slowdown in global economic growth. We believe that the focus of the market will soon shift from weak demand to the risk of supply disruption. Oil prices are expected to rise by more than $70 per barrel in the second half of 2019.
The number of unemployment claims in Britain changed by 38,000 in June, with a pre-value of 24,500.
Gold conceptual stocks continued to strengthen in the afternoon, with Huihua Jewelry, Jinzhou Cihang pulling up the sealing board, Hengbang Stock, Ronghua Industry, Shandong Gold and so on rising by more than 7%.
【Stock market closing】 Taiwan's weighted index closed up 44.94 points, or 0.42%, at 10843.42 on Thursday, July 11.
Bill Maldonado, Global Investment Chief of HSBC Global Asset Management: The global economy is not expected to fall into recession before 2021, although economic growth is slowing down, it is unlikely that the global economy will fall into recession before 2021. Given the ideal global economic growth, solid corporate fundamentals and supportive monetary policies, there is a greater likelihood of a recession in 2021 or later, and global investors are too pessimistic. Among emerging markets, Asia stands out, while other markets struggle to cope with market uncertainty. Compared with the U.S. market, the current discount rate for Asian stock markets other than Japan is attractive.
The Nikkei 225 Index closed up 98.52 points, or 0.46%, at 21632.00 on Thursday, July 11.
【Puyi Standard: Second Quarter Banking Financial Revenue fell to 4.12%】 On July 11, Puyi Standard issued its second quarterly report of the bank financial market in 2019. According to the monitoring data of Puyi Standard, 412 banks issued 26515 financial products (including closed expected income, open expected income and net value products) in the second quarter, 12 issuing banks decreased and 843 issuance of products decreased. Among them, the average yield of closed expected return RMB products is 4.12%, which is 0.13 percentage points lower than the previous period. According to Puyi Standard, although it is in the middle of the year, the rate of return on bank financing has not been warmed by the end-of-season savings. (Shanghai Stock Exchange)
Goldman Sachs: Although not optimistic about the dollar, short dollar should be avoided in arbitrage trading. The dollar's decline is expected to remain volatile. It tends to use emerging market currencies for arbitrage trading. If the growth prospects improve, emerging market currencies still have some room to appreciate, and to a certain extent, they are not affected by the rise of the US dollar.
Foreign exchange analyst Justin Low: Today investors can focus on the press conference of Bank of England Governor Carney and the European Central Bank.